The Arctic Ocean CO2 sink: Trends, uncertainties, and the impact of sea ice

Dutch, Victoria, Bakker, Dorothee C. E., Roobaert, Alizée, Landschuetzer, Peter, Roden, Nicholas, Hoppema, Mario and Kaiser, Jan (2025) The Arctic Ocean CO2 sink: Trends, uncertainties, and the impact of sea ice. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. ISSN 0886-6236 (In Press)

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Abstract

The Arctic Ocean covers 3% of the Earth’s surface but is estimated to contribute 5 - 14% to the global ocean carbon sink. Sparse and unevenly distributed observations complicate our understanding of the size and the controlling mechanisms of this carbon sink. We adopt and advance the two-step neural network approach of Landschützer et al. (2016) (Self Organising Map Feed Forward Network; SOM-FFN) to improve region -specific reconstructions of the surface ocean partial pressure of carbon dioxide (p(CO₂)) in the Arctic Ocean and subsequently estimate the air-sea CO₂ flux. Our study shows that biogeochemical properties previously selected as predictor variables for p(CO₂) at the global scale are not well suited to the Arctic Ocean and a sensitivity study reveals large differences in the size of the Arctic Ocean carbon sink depending on the choice of air-sea CO₂ flux parameterisation. This is most acute for those relating to sea ice cover, leading to a difference of up to 25% (9.2 - 13.3 Pg C) in the total size of the Arctic Ocean carbon sink over the 32-year duration of the study.

Item Type:	Article
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	06 Aug 2025 16:30
Last Modified:	06 Aug 2025 16:30
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/100088
DOI:	issn:0886-6236

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