The wisdom of large and small crowds: Evidence from repeated natural experiments in sports betting

Brown, Alasdair and Yang, Fuyu (2019) The wisdom of large and small crowds: Evidence from repeated natural experiments in sports betting. International Journal of Forecasting, 35 (1). pp. 288-296. ISSN 0169-2070

[img] PDF (Accepted manuscript) - Submitted Version
Restricted to Repository staff only until 27 August 2020.
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.

Download (503kB) | Request a copy

    Abstract

    Prediction markets have proved excellent tools for forecasting, outperforming experts and polls in many settings. But do larger markets, with a wider participation, perform better than smaller markets? This paper analyses a series of repeated natural experiments in sports betting. The Queen’s Club Tennis Championships are held every year, but every other year the Championships clash with a major soccer tournament. We find that tennis betting prices become significantly less informative when participation rates are affected adversely by the clashing soccer tournament. This suggests that measures which increase prediction market participation may lead to a greater forecast accuracy.

    Item Type: Article
    Uncontrolled Keywords: prediction markets,forecasting,sports betting,natural experiment
    Faculty \ School: Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Economics
    Depositing User: Pure Connector
    Date Deposited: 11 Jun 2018 15:33
    Last Modified: 01 Jan 2019 04:30
    URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/67342
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.06.002

    Actions (login required)

    View Item