Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2°C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America

Colon Gonzalez, Felipe De Jesus, Harris, Ian, Osborn, Timothy J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8425-6799, São Bernardo, Christine Steiner, Peres, Carlos A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1588-8765, Hunter, Paul R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5608-6144 and Lake, Iain R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4407-5357 (2018) Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2°C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115 (24). pp. 6243-6248. ISSN 0027-8424

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Abstract

The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. Whilst it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5°C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climatedriven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2°C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8–7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7°C. Limiting warming further to 1.5°C, produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2–1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease towards areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Erratum at 10.1073/pnas.1906969116
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate change impacts,disease modelling,latin america,dengue fever,sdg 3 - good health and well-being,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/good_health_and_well_being
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Norwich Medical School University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Water Security Research Centre Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Biology Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Groups > Epidemiology and Public Health Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Groups > Public Health and Health Services Research (former - to 2023) University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Environmental Social Sciences Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Centres > Population Health
Depositing User:	Pure Connector
Date Deposited:	30 May 2018 08:30
Last Modified:	19 Oct 2023 02:11
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/67235
DOI:	10.1073/pnas.1718945115

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