Sea-level rise induced change in exposure of low-lying coastal land: implications for coastal conservation strategies

Thiéblemont, Rémi, le Cozannet, Gonéri, Rohmer, Jérémy, Privat, Adrien, Guidez, Romain, Negulescu, Caterina, Philippenko, Xénia, Luijendijk, Arjen, Calkoen, Floris and Nicholls, Robert J. ORCID: (2024) Sea-level rise induced change in exposure of low-lying coastal land: implications for coastal conservation strategies. Anthropocene Coasts, 7. ISSN 2561-4150

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Coastal erosion and flooding are projected to increase during the 21st century due to sea-level rise (SLR). To prevent adverse impacts of unmanaged coastal development, national organizations can apply a land protection policy, which consists of acquiring coastal land to avoid further development. Yet, these reserved areas remain exposed to flooding and erosion enhanced by SLR. Here, we quantify the exposure of the coastal land heritage portfolio of the French Conservatoire du littoral (Cdl). We find that 30% (~40%) of the Cdl lands owned (projected to be owned) are located below the contemporary highest tide level. Nearly 10% additional surface exposure is projected by 2100 under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) and 2150 for the moderate scenario (SSP2-4.5). The increase in exposure is largest along the West Mediterranean coast of France. We also find that Cdl land exposure increases more rapidly for SLR in the range of 0–1 m than for SLR in the range 2–4 m. Thus, near-future uncertainty on SLR has the largest impact on Cdl land exposure evolution and related land acquisition planning. Concerning erosion, we find that nearly 1% of Cdl land could be lost in 2100 if observed historical trends continue. Adding the SLR effect could lead to more than 3% land loss. Our study confirms previous findings that Cdl needs to consider land losses due to SLR in its land acquisition strategy and start acquiring land farther from the coast.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Funding information: The research leading to these results received funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No 869304 (H2020-Protect).
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate change,coastal conservation agency,coastal hazards,sea-level rise,shoreline,oceanography,waste management and disposal,ocean engineering,nature and landscape conservation ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1910
UEA Research Groups: University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 04 Mar 2024 18:28
Last Modified: 11 Mar 2024 09:31
DOI: 10.1007/s44218-024-00041-1


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