The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends

Joshi, Manoj ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2948-2811, Hall, Robert A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3665-6322, Stevens, David P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7283-4405 and Hawkins, Ed (2023) The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends. Earth System Dynamics, 14 (2). 443–455. ISSN 2190-4979

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Abstract

The 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle arises from variations in the angle of the Moon's orbital plane. Previous work has linked the nodal cycle to climate but has been limited by either the length of observations analysed or geographical regions considered in model simulations of the pre-industrial period. Here we examine the global effect of the lunar nodal cycle in multi-centennial climate model simulations of the pre-industrial period. We find cyclic signals in global and regional surface air temperature (with amplitudes of around 0.1gK) and in ocean heat uptake and ocean heat content. The timing of anomalies of global surface air temperature and heat uptake is consistent with the so-called slowdown in global warming in the first decade of the 21st century. The lunar nodal cycle causes variations in mean sea level pressure exceeding 0.5ghPa in the Nordic Seas region, thus affecting the North Atlantic Oscillation during boreal winter. Our results suggest that the contribution of the lunar nodal cycle to global temperature should be negative in the mid-2020s before becoming positive again in the early 2030s, reducing the uncertainty in time at which projected global temperature reaches 1.5g° C above pre-industrial levels.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Data sets: Lunar nodal cycle forcing data, M. Joshi, R. Hall, D. Stevens, E. Hawkins, https://research-portal.uea.ac.uk/en/datasets/lunar-nodal-cycle-amplitude-modulation-map Financial support: This research has been supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (grant no. NE/N006348/1).
Uncontrolled Keywords: earth and planetary sciences(all),sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematics
UEA Research Groups: University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Collaborative Centre for Sustainable Use of the Seas
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Fluid and Solid Mechanics
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 03 Apr 2023 16:30
Last Modified: 31 Oct 2023 02:38
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/91716
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2022-151

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