Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation

Hirschfeld, Daniella, Behar, David, Nicholls, Robert J. ORCID:, Cahill, Niamh, James, Thomas, Horton, Benjamin P., Portman, Michelle E., Bell, Rob, Campo, Matthew, Esteban, Miguel, Goble, Bronwyn, Rahman, Munsur, Appeaning Addo, Kwasi, Chundeli, Faiz Ahmed, Aunger, Monique, Babitsky, Orly, Beal, Anders, Boyle, Ray, Fang, Jiayi, Gohar, Amir, Hanson, Susan ORCID:, Karamesines, Saul, Kim, MJ, Lohmann, Hilary, McInnes, Kathy, Mimura, Nobuo, Ramsay, Doug, Wenger, Landis and Yokoki, Hiromune (2023) Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation. Communications Earth & Environment, 4. ISSN 2662-4435

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Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation/planning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages – Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Acknowledgements: Many people across the world provided critical information to our questionnaire. We would like to thank them for taking time out of their busy schedules to support this research. D.H. was funded by Utah State University’s Office of Research. D.B. was funded by the people of the City and County of San Francisco and the SFPUC to participate in this research. R.J.N. was supported by the PROTECT Project. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT contribution number 54. NC’s work was conducted with the financial support of Science Foundation Ireland and co-funded by Geological Survey Ireland under grant number 20/FFP-P/8610. For T.J., this is a contribution of the Climate Change Geoscience Program of Natural Resources Canada. BPH is supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2019-T3-1-004, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 499. R.G.B. was supported by the NZ SeaRise Program funded by New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment Contract to the Research Trust at Victoria University (Contract ID - RTVU1705). M.C. acknowledges support from the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program. For M.E., the present work was performed as a part of activities of Research Institute of Sustainable Future Society, Waseda Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University. K.M. was supported by the Climate Systems Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental science Program (NESP) and CSIRO. We would like to recognize Muhammad Hadi Ikhsan for his work on the figures.
Uncontrolled Keywords: environmental science(all),earth and planetary sciences(all) ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300
UEA Research Groups: University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 21 Feb 2023 12:30
Last Modified: 24 Apr 2023 08:30
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x


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