Benefits of subsidence control for coastal flooding in China

Fang, Jiayi, Nicholls, Robert J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109, Brown, Sally, Lincke, Daniel, Hinkel, Jochen, Vafeidis, Athanasios T., Du, Shiqiang, Zhao, Qing, Liu, Min and Shi, Peijun (2022) Benefits of subsidence control for coastal flooding in China. Nature Communications, 13. ISSN 2041-1723

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Abstract

Land subsidence is impacting large populations in coastal Asia via relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we assesses these risks and possible response strategies for China, including estimates of present rates of RSLR, flood exposure and risk to 2050. In 2015, each Chinese coastal resident experienced on average RSLR of 11 to 20 mm/yr. This is 3 to 5 times higher than climate-induced SLR, reflecting that people are concentrated in subsiding locations. In 2050, assuming these subsidence rates continue, land area, population and assets exposed to the 100-year coastal flood event is 20%-39%, 17%-37% and 18%-39% higher than assuming climate change alone, respectively. Realistic subsidence control measures can avoid up to two thirds of this additional growth in exposure, with adaptation required to address the residual. This analysis emphasizes subsidence as a RSLR hazard in China that requires a broad-scale policy response, utilizing subsidence control combined with coastal adaptation.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Data availability: All datasets used in the production of this paper are available from: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.696911558. Source data are provided with this paper. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License. Code availability: The DIVA code is available at https://gitlab.com/daniel.lincke.globalclimateforum.org/diva_published. The R code used to produce the numbers, tables and figures is available from: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.696911558. Source data are provided with this paper. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License. Acknowledgements: J.F., S.D. and P.S. were supported by National Key R & D Programme of China (2017YFC1503001), National Natural Science Foundation of China (42001096) and Expertise-Introduction Project for Disciplinary Innovation of Universities: Hazard and Risk Science Base at Beijing Normal University (BP0820003). A.T.V., D.L., J.H., R.J.N. and S.B. were supported by the European Union’s Seventh Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration under grant agreement No. 603396 (RISES-AM project). S.B. undertook most of this work at the University of Southampton, where she remains a visitor. It does not reflect the views or positions of subsequent organisations she moved to. R.J.N., D.L. and J.H. were supported by the PROTECT Project. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT contribution number 42.
Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 31 Oct 2022 12:31
Last Modified: 16 Nov 2022 09:30
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/89441
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34525-w

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