Synthesizing empirical and modelling studies to predict past and future primary production in the North Sea

Spence, Michael A., Lynam, Christopher P., Thorpe, Robert B., Heneghan, Ryan F. and Dolder, Paul J. ORCID: (2022) Synthesizing empirical and modelling studies to predict past and future primary production in the North Sea. Frontiers in Marine Science, 9. ISSN 2296-7745

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Understanding change at the base of the marine foodwebs is fundamental to understanding how climate change can impact fisheries. However, there is a shortage of empirical measurements of primary productivity, and models estimates often disagree with each other by an order of magnitude or more. In this study we incorporate information from empirical studies and a suite of Earth system models statistically downscaled using an ensemble model to produce estimates of North Sea primary production with robust quantification of uncertainties under two different climate scenarios. The results give a synthesised estimate of primary production that can feed into regional fisheries models. We found that Earth system models describe the dynamics of primary production in the North Sea poorly, and therefore the effects of climate change on future primary production are uncertain. The methods demonstrated here can be applied to other geographical locations and are not limited in application to primary production.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Funding Information: This work was funded by DEFRA via the ‘mixed-fisheries and multispecies modelling’ theme and EU’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No 773713 (PANDORA). CPL was funded by EU’s Horizon 2020 Project ‘Climate Change and Future Marine Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity’ (FutureMARES, grant No 869300). Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2022 Spence, Lynam, Thorpe, Heneghan and Dolder.
Uncontrolled Keywords: earth system models,ensemble modelling,north sea,primary productivity,uncertainty quantification,oceanography,global and planetary change,aquatic science,water science and technology,environmental science (miscellaneous),ocean engineering,sdg 13 - climate action,sdg 14 - life below water ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1910
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups: Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Collaborative Centre for Sustainable Use of the Seas
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 17 Aug 2022 00:08
Last Modified: 30 Jan 2024 03:09
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2022.828623

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