Evidence for predictive skill of high-latitude climate due to midsummer sea ice extent anomalies

He, Shengping, Knudsen, Erlend M., Thompson, David W. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5413-4376 and Furevik, Tore (2018) Evidence for predictive skill of high-latitude climate due to midsummer sea ice extent anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (17). pp. 9114-9122. ISSN 0094-8276

[thumbnail of He_etal_2018_GeophysicalResearchLetters]
PDF (He_etal_2018_GeophysicalResearchLetters) - Published Version
Available under License Other licence.

Download (2MB) | Preview


Previous work has explored the linkages between Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) anomalies at the end of the summer melt season and high-latitude climate. Here we show that Arctic midsummer SIE anomalies provide predictive skill on time scales of ~2–3 months for high-latitude climate. Midsummers characterized by low SIE are associated with significant positive temperature and easterly wind anomalies throughout the high-latitude troposphere through September and significant positive temperature anomalies at the Arctic surface into October. The inferred predictive skill for autumn climate derives from the persistence of the sea ice field. It is robust throughout the Arctic basin and is supported in climate models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archive and in prediction experiments from the Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal to Interannual Time scales project. It is theorized that the predictive skill derives from (1) the anomalous storage of heat in the Arctic Ocean during periods of low summertime SIE and (2) the delayed formation of sea ice during the following autumn months.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups: Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit
Related URLs:
Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 13 Jun 2022 13:30
Last Modified: 15 Jun 2023 04:31
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/85564
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL078281


Downloads per month over past year

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item