Quantifying the lead time required for a linear trend to emerge from natural climate variability

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Li, Jingyuan, Thompson, David W. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5413-4376, Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Solomon, Susan (2017) Quantifying the lead time required for a linear trend to emerge from natural climate variability. Journal of Climate, 30 (24). 10179–10191. ISSN 0894-8755

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Abstract

This study introduces a simple analytic expression for calculating the lead time required for a linear trend to emerge in a Gaussian first-order autoregressive process. The expression is derived from the standard error of the regression and is tested using the NCAR Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate change simulations. It is shown to provide a robust estimate of the point in time when the forced signal of climate change has emerged from the natural variability of the climate system with a predetermined level of statistical confidence. The expression provides a novel analytic tool for estimating the time of emergence of anthropogenic climate change and its associated regional climate impacts from either observed or modeled estimates of natural variability and trends.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Related URLs:	https://publons.com/publon/11272725/
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	10 Jun 2022 09:30
Last Modified:	22 Oct 2022 18:33
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/85489
DOI:	10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0280.1

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