Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts

Baldwin, Mark P., Stephenson, David B., Thompson, David W. J. ORCID:, Dunkerton, Timothy J., Charlton, Andrew J. and O'Neill, Alan (2003) Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts. Science, 301 (5633). pp. 636-640. ISSN 0036-8075

Full text not available from this repository. (Request a copy)


We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO.

Item Type: Article
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups: Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Related URLs:
Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 07 Jun 2022 14:30
Last Modified: 15 Jun 2023 04:33
DOI: 10.1126/SCIENCE.1087143

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item