Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

Elliott, Paul, Haw, David, Wang, Haowei, Eales, Oliver, Walters, Caroline E., Ainslie, Kylie E. C., Atchison, Christina, Fronterre, Claudio, Diggle, Peter J., Page, Andrew J., Trotter, Alexander J., Prosolek, Sophie J., Ashby, Deborah, Donnelly, Christl A., Barclay, Wendy, Taylor, Graham, Cooke, Graham, Ward, Helen, Darzi, Ara and Riley, Steven and The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium (2021) Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant. Science, 374 (6574). ISSN 0036-8075

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Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries as a result of the Delta variant. We assessed reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction swab positivity in the Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. During June and July 2021, we observed sustained exponential growth with an average doubling time of 25 days, driven by complete replacement of the Alpha variant by Delta and by high prevalence at younger, less-vaccinated ages. Prevalence among unvaccinated people [1.21% (95% credible interval 1.03%, 1.41%)] was three times that among double-vaccinated eople [0.40%(95% credible interval 0.34%, 0.48%]. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ∼50% and ∼60% during this period in England. Increased socialmixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Publisher Copyright: © 2021 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
Uncontrolled Keywords: general,sdg 3 - good health and well-being ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1000
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Biological Sciences
Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Norwich Medical School
UEA Research Groups: Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Groups > Nutrition and Preventive Medicine
Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Centres > Norwich Institute for Healthy Aging
Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Centres > Lifespan Health
Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Groups > Musculoskeletal Medicine
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 24 May 2022 15:00
Last Modified: 22 Nov 2023 04:33
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/85096
DOI: 10.1126/science.abl9551

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