Climate precursors of satellite water marker index for spring cholera outbreak in Northern Bay of Bengal coastal regions

Ogata, Tomomichi, Racault, Marie-Fanny ORCID:, Nonaka, Masami and Behera, Swadhin (2021) Climate precursors of satellite water marker index for spring cholera outbreak in Northern Bay of Bengal coastal regions. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18 (19). ISSN 1660-4601

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Cholera is a water-borne infectious disease that affects 1.3 to 4 million people, with 21,000 to 143,000 reported fatalities each year worldwide. Outbreaks are devastating to affected communities and their prospects for development. The key to support preparedness and public health response is the ability to forecast cholera outbreaks with sufficient lead time. How Vibrio cholerae survives in the environment outside a human host is an important route of disease transmission. Thus, identifying the environmental and climate drivers of these pathogens is highly desirable. Here, we elucidate for the first time a mechanistic link between climate variability and cholera (Satellite Water Marker; SWM) index in the Bengal Delta, which allows us to predict cholera outbreaks up to two seasons earlier. High values of the SWM index in fall were associated with above-normal summer monsoon rainfalls over northern India. In turn, these correlated with the La Niña climate pattern that was traced back to the summer monsoon and previous spring seasons. We present a new multi-linear regression model that can explain 50% of the SWM variability over the Bengal Delta based on the relationship with climatic indices of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and summer monsoon rainfall during the decades 1997–2016. Interestingly, we further found that these relationships were non-stationary over the multi-decadal period 1948–2018. These results bear novel implications for developing outbreak-risk forecasts, demonstrating a crucial need to account for multi-decadal variations in climate interactions and underscoring to better understand how the south Asian summer monsoon responds to climate variability.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Funding Information: This research was funded by the United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI), the India Department for Biotechnology (DBT), and the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) Towards a Sustainable Earth (TaSE) program PODCAST project under the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant number [NE/S012567/1] and JST grant number [JPMJBF18T4], and the ESA-Future Earth COP26 Demonstrator PODCAST-DEMO grant number [ESA-2020-04]. The work contributes to the UKRI-NERC Pathways Of Dispersal for Cholera And Solution Tools (PODCAST) project, the ESA-Future Earth PODCAST-DEMOnstrator project, the GEO Blue Planet Water-associated Diseases Working Group with a grant support from the Partnership for Observation of the Global Ocean (POGO), the Future Earth Coasts which is a Global Research Project of Future Earth, and the Future Earth Health Knowledge-Action Network. Acknowledgments: The authors would like to acknowledge Christine Pascoe for digitizing climatology of cholera dataset, and J. V. Ratnam for extracting Indian monsoon rainfall dataset.
Uncontrolled Keywords: cholera,climate variability,remote sensing,tropics,public health, environmental and occupational health,pollution,health, toxicology and mutagenesis,sdg 3 - good health and well-being ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2700/2739
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 11 Feb 2022 13:30
Last Modified: 20 Mar 2023 11:34
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph181910201


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