Future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in Europe: A common framework based on shared-socioeconomic-pathways (SSPs)

Pinnegar, John K., Hamon, Katell G., Kreiss, Cornelia M., Tabeau, Andrzej, Rybicki, Sandra, Papathanasopoulou, Eleni, Engelhard, Georg H., Eddy, Tyler D. and Peck, Myron A. (2021) Future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in Europe: A common framework based on shared-socioeconomic-pathways (SSPs). Frontiers in Marine Science, 7. ISSN 2296-7745

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Abstract

It has proven extremely challenging for researchers to predict with confidence how human societies might develop in the future, yet managers and industries need to make projections in order to test adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to build resilience to long-term shocks. This paper introduces exploratory scenarios with a particular focus on European aquaculture and fisheries and describes how these scenarios were designed. Short-, mediumand long-term developments in socio-political drivers may be just as important in determining profits, revenues and prospects in the aquaculture and fisheries industries as physical drivers such as longterm climate change. Four socio-political-economic futures were developed, based partly on the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) framework and partly on the newer system of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). 'Off the shelf' narrative material as well as quantitative outputs were 'borrowed' from earlier frameworks but supplemented with material generated through in-depth stakeholder workshops involving industry and policy makers. Workshop participants were tasked to outline how they thought their sector might look under the four future worlds and, in particular, to make use of the PESTEL conceptual framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) as an aide memoire to help define the scope of each scenario. This work was carried out under the auspices of the EU Horizon 2020 project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources), and for each 'CERES scenario' (World Markets, National Enterprise, Global Sustainability and Local Stewardship), additional quantitative outputs were generated, including projections of future fuel and fish prices, using the MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool) modeling framework. In developing and applying the CERES scenarios, we have demonstrated that the basic architecture is sufficiently flexible to be used at a wide diversity of scales. We urge the climate science community to adopt a similar scenarios framework, based around SSPs, to facilitate global cross-comparison of fisheries and aquaculture model outputs more broadly and to harmonize communication regarding potential future bioeconomic impacts of climate change.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Funding Information: This project received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement no. 678193 (CERES – Climate change and European Aquatic Resources). This document reflects only the authors’ view. The European Commission is not responsible for the dissemination of CERES project results and for any use that may be made of the information. Funding Information: We are grateful to all of the CERES project participants and stakeholders, representing both the aquaculture and fisheries sectors, who generously provided their personal visions of how they thought the future might unfold under each of the four future worlds. Additional insights and advice were provided by participants at an ICES-PICES Workshop on Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental scenarios (WKPESTLE) held in Washington D.C. on 9th June 2018. Funding. This project received funding from the European Union?s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement no. 678193 (CERES ? Climate change and European Aquatic Resources). This document reflects only the authors? view. The European Commission is not responsible for the dissemination of CERES project results and for any use that may be made of the information. Publisher Copyright: © Copyright © 2021 Pinnegar, Hamon, Kreiss, Tabeau, Rybicki, Papathanasopoulou, Engelhard, Eddy and Peck.
Uncontrolled Keywords: scenario,marine,aquaculture,fisheries,climate change,climate-change research,northeast atlantic,fisheries,fish,water science and technology,environmental science (miscellaneous),ocean engineering,aquatic science,oceanography,global and planetary change,sdg 14 - life below water,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2312
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 24 Aug 2021 00:19
Last Modified: 01 Oct 2021 10:05
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/81184
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2020.568219

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