Future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in Europe: An operationalized framework for marine fisheries projections

Hamon, Katell G., Kreiss, Cornelia M., Pinnegar, John K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5061-9520, Bartelings, Heleen, Batsleer, Jurgen, Catalan, Ignacio A., Damalas, Dimitrios, Poos, Jan-Jaap, Rybicki, Sandra, Sailley, Sevrine F., Sgardeli, Vasiliki and Peck, Myron A. (2021) Future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in Europe: An operationalized framework for marine fisheries projections. Frontiers in Marine Science, 8. ISSN 2296-7745

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Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and widespread direct consequences for the European marine ecosystems and subsequently for the European fishery sector. Additionally, many socio-economic and political factors linked to climate change scenarios will impact the future development of fishing industries. Robust projection modeling of bioeconomic consequences of climate change on the European fishing sector must identify all these factors and their potential future interaction. In this study, four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources) were operationalized and used in model projections of marine wild capture fisheries. Four CERES scenarios (?World Markets,? ?National Enterprise,? ?Global Sustainability? and ?Local Stewardship") were based on the IPCC framework of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). For each of these scenarios, a set of quantitative outputs was generated to allow projections of bio-economic impacts to mid-century (2050) on wild-capture fisheries operating in different European regions. Specifically, projections accounted for future changes in fisheries management targets, access regulations, international agreements, fish and fuel prices, technological developments and marine spatial planning. This study thoroughly describes the elements of these four fisheries scenarios and demonstrates an example of the ?regionalization? of these scenarios by summarizing how they were applied to the North Sea flatfish fishery. Bioeconomic projections highlight the importance of future developments in fuel and fish price development to the viability of that and other fisheries. Adapting these scenarios for use in other models and regions outside the 10 European fisheries examined in CERES would be highly beneficial by allowing direct comparison of the bioeconomic risks and opportunities posed by climate change.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Funding Information: This project received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under grant agreement No. 678193 (CERES – Climate change and European Aquatic Resources). This document reflects only the authors’ view. The European Commission is not responsible for the dissemination of CERES project results and for any use that may be made of the information. Part of this study was also funded by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, project code: KB-21-002-008.
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate change,fishery,scenarios,economic,ssp,simfish,pestel,socio-political,water science and technology,environmental science (miscellaneous),ocean engineering,aquatic science,oceanography,global and planetary change,sdg 14 - life below water,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2312
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 24 Aug 2021 00:18
Last Modified: 23 Oct 2022 02:55
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/81180
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.578516


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