Are Food Price Promotions Predictable? The Hazard Function of Supermarket Discounts

Lan, Hao, Lloyd, Tim, Morgan, Wyn and Dobson, Paul (2021) Are Food Price Promotions Predictable? The Hazard Function of Supermarket Discounts. Journal of Agricultural Economics. ISSN 0021-857X (In Press)

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Abstract

Is the timing of food products going on sale, in the form of temporary price reductions, random or predictable? More specifically, are products more likely to go on sale the longer they remain non-promoted? We investigate the nature and timing of sales discounts using a large database based on weekly supermarket scanner prices covering 500 products for 137 weeks in the largest seven national retail chains in the UK. Our duration analysis of regular price spells reveals that discounting for a wide range of food products is more likely the longer they remain without a sale. However, critical differences exist between retailers following Hi-Lo or every-day-low-pricing (EDLP) policies, while the time-dependent pattern varies considerably across product categories, brand status, and discount depth.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: price promotions,supermarket prices,discounting,sales,hazard function,food prices,price competition,economics, econometrics and finance(all),business, management and accounting(all) ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2000
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Social Sciences > Norwich Business School
Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 10 Jun 2021 00:08
Last Modified: 10 Jun 2021 00:08
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/80244
DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12448

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