Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in Europe: A quasi-experimental non-equivalent group and time-series

Hunter, Paul, Colon Gonzalez, Felipe De Jesus, Brainard, Julii and Rushton, Steven (2021) Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in Europe: A quasi-experimental non-equivalent group and time-series. Eurosurveillance. ISSN 1560-7917 (In Press)

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Abstract

Introduction The current epidemic of COVID-19 is unparalleled in recent history as are the social distancing interventions that have led to a significant halt on the economic and social life of so many countries. Objective We aimed to generate empirical evidence about which social distancing measures had the most impact in reducing case counts and mortality. Methods We report a quasi-experimental (observational) study of the impact of various interventions for control of the outbreak. Chronological data on case numbers and deaths were taken from the daily published figures by the European Centre for Disease Control and dates of initiation of various control strategies from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation website and published sources. Our complementary analyses were modelled in R using Bayesian generalised additive mixed models and in Stata using multi-level mixed effects regression models. Results From both sets of modelling, we found that closure of education facilities, prohibiting mass gatherings and closure of some non-essential businesses were associated with reduced incidence whereas stay at home orders and closure of additional non-essential businesses was not associated with any independent additional impact. Conclusions Our pertinent findings are that schools and some non-essential businesses operating “as normal“ as well as allowing mass gatherings were incompatible with suppressing disease spread. Closure of all businesses and stay at home orders are less likely to be required to keep disease incidence low. Our results can help inform strategies for staying out of lockdown.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: covid-19,control measures,stay at home,collinearity,bayesian generalised additive mixed models,medicine(all) ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2700
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Norwich Medical School
Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climatic Change
Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 16 Mar 2021 00:50
Last Modified: 09 May 2021 00:11
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/79472
DOI:

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