Integrated assessment of the food-water-land-ecosystems nexus in Europe:Implications for sustainability

Kebede, Abiy S., Nicholls, Robert J. ORCID:, Clarke, Derek, Savin, Cristina and Harrison, Paula A. (2021) Integrated assessment of the food-water-land-ecosystems nexus in Europe:Implications for sustainability. Science of the Total Environment, 768. ISSN 0048-9697

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Climate and socio-economic change impacts are likely to cross traditional sectoral and regional boundaries with cascading indirect, and potentially far-reaching, repercussions. This is particularly important for the food-water-land-ecosystems (FWLE) nexus, which is fundamental for the achievement of at least six of the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A holistic understanding of the FWLE nexus interactions and how and to what extent various exogenous drivers of change affect them is therefore central to cross-sectoral adaptation planning. Here, we present such an integrated assessment for Europe applying a regional Integrated Assessment Platform (IAP). The study explores a wide range of future climate and socio-economic scenarios using more than 900 model simulations. The results show that food production is likely to be the main driver of Europe's future landscape change dynamics (with or without climate change). Agriculture and land use allocation is often driven by complex cross-sectoral interactions with cascading effects on other sectors such as forestry, biodiversity, and water under the various scenarios. The modelling also highlighted that while sustaining current levels of food production at the European level could be achievable under most climate and socio-economic scenarios, there are significant regional differences with winners and losers. The analysis raises the question of whether current production and consumption policies are sustainable in the long-term. Such systematic integrated model-based analysis plays a crucial role in informing development of cross-sectoral policies that maximise synergies and minimise trade-offs across nexus sectors, regions, and scenarios. This is essential to achieve the SDGs.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate and socio-economic change,cross-sectoral impacts,food-water-land-ecosystems nexus,integrated assessment,sustainability,sustainable development goals (sdgs),environmental engineering,environmental chemistry,waste management and disposal,pollution,sdg 2 - zero hunger,sdg 13 - climate action,sdg 15 - life on land ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2305
Faculty \ School: University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups: University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Collaborative Centre for Sustainable Use of the Seas
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 06 Feb 2021 00:59
Last Modified: 23 Oct 2022 02:12
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144461


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