Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

Forster, Piers M., Forster, Harriet I., Evans, Mat J., Gidden, Matthew J., Jones, Chris D., Keller, Christoph A., Lamboll, Robin D., Quéré, Corinne Le, Rogelj, Joeri, Rosen, Deborah, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Richardson, Thomas B., Smith, Christopher J. and Turnock, Steven T. (2020) Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19. Nature Climate Change, 10 (10). 913–919. ISSN 1758-678X

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Abstract

The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: environmental science (miscellaneous),social sciences (miscellaneous) ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2301
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 14 Sep 2020 23:52
Last Modified: 19 Oct 2020 23:55
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/76867
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0

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