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Forster, Piers M., Forster, Harriet I., Evans, Mat J., Gidden, Matthew J., Jones, Chris D., Keller, Christoph A., Lamboll, Robin D., Quéré, Corinne Le 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2319-0452, Rogelj, Joeri, Rosen, Deborah, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Richardson, Thomas B., Smith, Christopher J. and Turnock, Steven T.
(2020)
Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19.
Nature Climate Change, 10 (10).
913–919.
ISSN 1758-678X
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Abstract
The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | environmental science (miscellaneous),social sciences (miscellaneous) ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2301 |
| Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA |
| UEA Research Groups: | University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences |
| Related URLs: | |
| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 14 Sep 2020 23:52 |
| Last Modified: | 20 Oct 2023 01:16 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/76867 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0 |
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