Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity

Andrijevic, Marina, Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus, Muttarak, Raya and Schleussner, Carl Friedrich (2020) Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity. Nature Sustainability, 3. pp. 35-41. ISSN 2398-9629

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Abstract

Governance is one of the critical components for sustainability, but quantification within scenarios and projections of future socioeconomic development has been lacking. This analysis of various pathways looks at how best to overcome 'weak' governance and strengthen adaptive capacity. Weak governance is one of the key obstacles for sustainable development. Undoubtedly, improvement of governance comes with a broad range of co-benefits, including countries' abilities to respond to pressing global challenges such as climate change. However, beyond the qualitative acknowledgement of its importance, quantifications of future pathways of governance are still lacking. This study provides projections of future governance in line with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We find that under a 'rocky road' scenario, 30% of the global population would still live in countries characterized by weak governance in 2050, while under a 'green road' scenario, weak governance would be almost entirely overcome over the same time frame. On the basis of pathways for governance, we estimate the adaptive capacity of countries to climate change. Limits to adaptive capacity exist even under optimistic pathways beyond mid-century. Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for governance in assessments of climate change impacts.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: climate-change,adaptation,1.5-degrees-c,allocation,inequality,corruption,education,democracy,conflict,geography, planning and development,food science,nature and landscape conservation,management, monitoring, policy and law,global and planetary change,ecology,renewable energy, sustainability and the environment,urban studies ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/3300/3305
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Social Sciences > School of International Development
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Depositing User: LivePure Connector
Date Deposited: 10 Jan 2020 04:24
Last Modified: 28 May 2020 00:06
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/73579
DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0405-0

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