The predictive power of the dividend risk premium

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Avino, Davide E., Stancu, Andrei and Wese Simen, Chardin (2021) The predictive power of the dividend risk premium. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 56 (8). pp. 2843-2869. ISSN 0022-1090

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Abstract

We show that the dividend growth rate implied by the options market is informative about i) the expected dividend growth rate and ii) the expected dividend risk premium. We model the expected dividend risk premium and explore its implications for the predictability of dividend growth and stock market returns. Correcting for the expected dividend risk premium strengthens the evidence for the predictability of dividend growth and stock market returns both in and out of sample. Economically, a market-timing investor who accounts for the time-varying expected dividend risk premium realizes an additional utility gain of 2.02% per year.

Item Type:	Article
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Norwich Business School
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Finance Group
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?... https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	25 Jun 2019 13:30
Last Modified:	30 Jun 2025 00:34
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/71540
DOI:	10.1017/S0022109020000733

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