Harmful algal blooms and climate change: Exploring future distribution changes

Townhill, Bryony L., Tinker, Jonathan, Jones, Miranda, Pitois, Sophie, Creach, Veronique, Simpson, Stephen D., Dye, Stephen, Bear, Elizabeth and Pinnegar, John (2018) Harmful algal blooms and climate change: Exploring future distribution changes. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 75 (6). 1882–1893. ISSN 1054-3139

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Abstract

Harmful algae can cause death in fish, shellfish, marine mammals, and humans, via their toxins or from effects associated with their sheer quantity. There are many species, which cause a variety of problems around north-west Europe, and the frequency and distribution of algal blooms have altered in the recent past. Species distribution modelling was used to understand how harmful algal species may respond in the future to climate change, by considering environmental preferences and how these may shift. Most distribution studies to date use low resolution global model outputs. In this study, high resolution, downscaled shelf seas climate projections for the north-west European shelf were nested within lower resolution global projections, to understand how the distribution of harmful algae may change by the mid to end of century. Projections suggest that the habitat of most species (defined by temperature, salinity, depth, and stratification) will shift north this century, with suitability increasing in the central and northern North Sea. An increase in occurrence here might lead to more frequent detrimental blooms if wind, irradiance and nutrient levels are also suitable. Prioritizing monitoring of species in these susceptible areas could help in establishing early-warning systems for aquaculture and health protection schemes.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Corrigendum at 10.1093/icesjms/fsy203 Funding information: The work was supported by the Cefas Seedcorn project Harmful Algal Blooms—Predictions Including Climate Change (DP369). J. Tinker was additionally supported by the Joint UK Department for Energy and Climate Change/Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). M. Jones was supported by the Nippon Foundation-University of British Columbia Nereus Programme. S. Simpson received support from a NERC KE Fellowship (S.D.S.; NE/J500616/2). J. Pinnegar received additional support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020, Climate change and European aquatic resources (CERES) project, under grant agreement 678193.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action,sdg 14 - life below water ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Collaborative Centre for Sustainable Use of the Seas
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	26 Sep 2018 14:30
Last Modified:	09 Apr 2025 00:46
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/68361
DOI:	10.1093/icesjms/fsy113

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