Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System

Semenza, Jan C., Trinanes, Joaquin, Lohr, Wolfgang, Sudre, Bertrand, Löfdahl, Margareta, Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime, Nichols, Gordon L. and Rocklöv, Joacim (2017) Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System. Environmental Health Perspectives, 125 (10). ISSN 0091-6765

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Abstract

Background: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). Objectives: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. Methods: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Results: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure–response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. Conclusions: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198

Item Type: Article
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Norwich Medical School
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Depositing User: Pure Connector
Date Deposited: 07 Nov 2017 06:06
Last Modified: 28 Apr 2020 23:54
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/65361
DOI: 10.1289/EHP2198

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