Spatio-temporal models to determine association between Campylobacter cases and environment

Sanderson, Roy, Maas, James, Blain, Alasdair, Gorton, Russell, Ward, Jessica, O'Brien, Sarah, Hunter, Paul ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5608-6144 and Rushton, Stephen (2018) Spatio-temporal models to determine association between Campylobacter cases and environment. International Journal of Epidemiology, 47 (1). 202–216. ISSN 0300-5771

Preview

PDF (Published manuscript) - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

Background: Campylobacteriosis is a major cause of gastroenteritis in the UK, and although 70% of cases are associated with food sources, the remainder are probably associated with wider environmental exposure. Methods: In order to investigate wider environmental transmission, we conducted a spatio-temporal analysis of the association of human cases of Campylobacter in the Tyne catchment with weather, climate, hydrology and land use. A hydrological model was used to predict surface-water flow in the Tyne catchment over 5 years. We analysed associations between population-adjusted Campylobacter case rate and environmental factors hypothesised to be important in disease using a two stage modelling framework. First, we investigated associations between temporal variation in case rate in relation to surface-water flow, temperature, evapotranspiration and rainfall using linear mixed-effects models. Second, we used the random effects for the first model to quantify how spatial variation in static landscape features of soil and land use impacted on the likely differences between subcatchment associations of case rate with the temporal variables.  Results: Population-adjusted Campylobacter case rates were associated with periods of high predicted surface-water flow, and during above average temperatures. Subcatchments with cattle on stagnogley soils, and to a lesser extent sheep plus cattle grazing, had higher Campylobacter case rates.  Conclusions: Areas of stagnogley soils with mixed livestock grazing may be more vulnerable to both Campylobacter spread and exposure during periods of high rainfall, with resultant increased risk of human cases of the disease.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	campylobacter,hydrology,livestock,rainfall,soils,sdg 3 - good health and well-being,sdg 13 - climate action,sdg 15 - life on land ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/good_health_and_well_being
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Norwich Medical School University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Groups > Epidemiology and Public Health Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Water Security Research Centre Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Groups > Health Economics Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Groups > Public Health and Health Services Research (former - to 2023) Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > Research Centres > Population Health
Depositing User:	Pure Connector
Date Deposited:	17 Oct 2017 05:05
Last Modified:	19 Oct 2023 02:05
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/65148
DOI:	10.1093/ije/dyx217

Downloads

Actions (login required)

View Item