Assessment of electrical vehicles as a successful driver for reducing CO2 emissions in China

Hofmann, Jana, Guan, Dabo, Chalvatzis, Konstantinos ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9829-7030 and Huo, Hong (2016) Assessment of electrical vehicles as a successful driver for reducing CO2 emissions in China. Applied Energy, 184. 995–1003. ISSN 0306-2619

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Abstract

This paper analyses the impacts of the gasoline vehicle replacement programme with EVs at different penetration rates on petroleum and electricity sectors and their CO2 emissions. The study utilises a top-down- type Environmental Input-Output (EI-O) model. Our results show that the replacement of gasoline cars with EVs causes greater impacts on total gasoline production than on total electricity generation. For example, at 5%, 20%, 50%, 70% and 100% gasoline vehicle replacement with EVs, the total gasoline production decreases by 1.66%, 6.65%, 16.62%, 23.27% and 33.24% in policy scenario 1, while the total electricity production only increases by 0.71%, 2.82%, 7.05%, 9.87% and 14.10%. Our study confirms that the gasoline vehicle replacement with EVs, powered by 80% coal, has no effect on overall emissions. The CO2 emissions reduction in the petroleum sector is offset by the increase in CO2 emissions in the electricity sector, leaving the national CO 2 emissions unchanged. By decarbonising the electricity sector, i.e. using 30% less coal in electricity generation mix, the total CO2 emissions will be reduced by 28% (from 10,953 to 7,870 Mt CO 2 ) on the national level. The gasoline vehicle replacement programme with EVs, powered by 50% coal-based electricity, helps reduce CO2 emissions in petroleum sector and contributes zero or a very small proportion of additional CO2 emissions to the electricity sector (policy scenario 2 and 3). We argue that EVs can contribute to a reduction of petroleum dependence, air quality improvement and CO2 emission reduction only when their introduction is accompanied by aggressive electricity sector decarbonisation.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	electric vehicles,vehicle replacement,input–output modelling,electricity generation mix,co2 emissions,china
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Global Development (formerly School of International Development) Faculty of Social Sciences > Norwich Business School University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Water Security Research Centre University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Depositing User:	Pure Connector
Date Deposited:	14 Jun 2016 15:00
Last Modified:	07 Mar 2024 02:00
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/59334
DOI:	10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.06.042

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