Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting

Hanretty, Chris, Lauderdale, Ben and Vivyan, Nick (2016) Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting. Electoral Studies, 41. pp. 239-243. ISSN 0261-3794

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Abstract

We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: national polling,constituency polling,uniform swing,generalized normal swing
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Arts and Humanities > School of Politics, Philosophy, Language and Communication Studies
Depositing User: Pure Connector
Date Deposited: 17 Mar 2016 00:02
Last Modified: 20 Sep 2019 00:07
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/57496
DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019

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