Integrated models of livestock systems for climate change studies. 2. Intensive systems

Turnpenny, J. R., Parsons, D. J., Armstrong, A. C., Clark, J. A., Cooper, K. and Matthews, A. M. (2001) Integrated models of livestock systems for climate change studies. 2. Intensive systems. Global Change Biology, 7 (2). pp. 163-170. ISSN 1354-1013

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The potential impact of climate change by the year 2050 on intensive livestock systems in Britain is assessed through the use of simulation models of farming systems. The submodels comprise livestock feeding, livestock thermal balance and the thermal balance of controlled environment buildings and a stochastic weather generator. These are integrated to form system models for growing pigs and broiler chickens. They are applied to scenarios typical of SE England, which is the warmest region of the country and represents the worst case. For both species the frequency of severe heat stress is substantially increased, with a consequent risk of mortality. To offset this, it would be necessary to reduce stocking densities considerably, or to invest in improved ventilation or cooling equipment. Other effects on production are likely to be small.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: buildings,climate change,physiology,pigs,poultry,environmental impact,livestock farming ,modeling,united kingdom,gallus gallus,sus scrofa,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia > Faculty of Arts and Humanities > Research Groups > Political, Social and International Studies
University of East Anglia > Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Depositing User: Pure Connector
Date Deposited: 03 Dec 2013 14:54
Last Modified: 24 Oct 2022 23:56
DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2001.00401.x

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