Nonlinear Cointegration using Lyapunov Stability Theory

Markellos, Raphael-Nicholas (2011) Nonlinear Cointegration using Lyapunov Stability Theory. In: Progress in Financial Markets Research. Financial Institutions and Services . Nova Science Publishers.

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This paper extends the nonlinear cointegration approach of Granger and Hallman (1991) and Sephton (1994) using the framework of stochastic Lyapunov stability theory. The extended approach is nonparametric and has the advantage of being general enough to accommodate complicated nonlinear behavior. It is demonstrated that it is possible to construct nonlinear cointegrated systems with error-correction mechanisms that have no predictive ability. An empirical application of the proposed methodology shows that the monthly UK Gilt-Equity ratio implies a significant nonlinear cointegration relationship for the period January 1965 to December 1995. Error-correction models built from this cointegration relationship are found to have superior forecasting performance compared to a simple dynamic regression.

Item Type: Book Section
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Social Sciences > Norwich Business School
UEA Research Groups: Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Finance Group
Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Centre for Competition Policy
Depositing User: Raphael Markellos
Date Deposited: 28 Oct 2011 10:42
Last Modified: 20 Jun 2023 14:51

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