Predicting rainfall statistics in England and Wales using atmospheric circulation variables

Kilsby, C. G., Cowpertwait, P. S. P., O'Connell, P. E. and Jones, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5032-5493 (1998) Predicting rainfall statistics in England and Wales using atmospheric circulation variables. International Journal of Climatology, 18 (5). pp. 523-539. ISSN 1097-0088

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Abstract

Regression models are developed to predict point rainfall statistics, with potential application to downscaling general circulation model (GCM) output for future climates. The models can be used to predict the mean daily rainfall amount and the proportion of dry days for each calendar month at any site in England and Wales, and use the following explanatory variables: (i) geographical (altitude, geographic coordinates, and distance from nearest coast); and (ii) atmospheric circulation variables (mean values of air-flow indices derived from mean sea-level pressure grids). Values predicted by the models, for 10-km grid squares covering the whole of England and Wales, are in reasonable agreement with the 1961-1990 climatology of Barrow et al. (1993). The potential use of the models in hydrological climate change impact studies is discussed.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Funding information: EC Environment Research Programme under the POPSICLE project. Grant Number: EV5V-CT94-0150, Climatology and Natural Hazards
Uncontrolled Keywords: sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School: University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups: Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit
Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Depositing User: Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited: 20 Jul 2011 10:20
Last Modified: 14 Jul 2024 00:30
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/33977
DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199804)18:5<523::AID-JOC268>3.0.CO;2-X

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