Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: Using scenarios as ‘learning machines'

Berkhout, Frans, Hertin, Julia and Jordan, Andrew (2002) Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: Using scenarios as ‘learning machines'. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 12 (2). pp. 83-95.

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Abstract

Climate impact assessment needs to take account of two interrelated processes: socio-economic change and climate change. To date, future change in socio-economic systems has not been sufficiently integrated with an analysis of climate change impacts. Participative and synthetic scenario approaches offer a means for dealing with critical issues of indeterminacy, innovation, reflexivity and framing in analysing change in socio-economic systems, paving the way for a coherent way of handling of socio-economic futures in impact assessment. We argue that scenarios represent heuristic tools that encourage social learning in climate impact assessment. The advantages and disadvantages of a scenario-based approach are explored using examples from regional climate impact assessment in the UK.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Depositing User:	Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited:	14 Jun 2011 09:48
Last Modified:	28 Mar 2025 04:40
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/32440
DOI:	10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00006-7

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