Simulation of the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources in eastern England

Yusoff, I., Hiscock, K. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4505-1496 and Conway, D. (2002) Simulation of the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources in eastern England. In: Sustainable Groundwater Development. Geological Society of London, London, pp. 325-344.

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Abstract

This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the Chalk aquifer in west Norfolk. A two-layer transient groundwater flow model of the aquifer system was calibrated and validated for the period 1980–1995 and provided the historic flow record for the climate change simulations. Two future scenarios were selected from the Hadley Centre’s climate change experiments using HadCM2: (1) a medium-high (MH) emissions scenario; and (2) a medium-low (ML) emissions scenario of ‘greenhouse’ gases. Two future periods were considered: 2020–2035 and 2050–2065. Future recharge to the aquifer was estimated by adjusting the historic record of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration by factors calculated from comparing control and future HadCM2-generated values. Impacts of climate change were evaluated by incorporating the monthly estimated recharge inputs within the flow model. The most noticeable and consistent result of the climate change impact simulations is the decrease in recharge expected in autumn for all scenarios (decreases ranging from 17 to 35%) as a consequence of the smaller amount of summer precipitation and increased autumn potential evapotranspiration. For the 2050MH scenario, these conditions lead to a 42 0ncrease in autumn soil moisture deficit and a 26% reduction in recharge. Hence, west Norfolk can expect longer and drier summers that are predicted to have relatively little effect on summer groundwater levels (generally a 1 to 2 0ecrease) but will result in a decrease of up to 14 0n autumn river baseflow volumes.

Item Type: Book Section
Uncontrolled Keywords: sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups: Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Geosciences
Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Water Security Research Centre
Depositing User: Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited: 26 May 2011 13:51
Last Modified: 20 Jul 2024 23:43
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/31481
DOI: 10.1144/GSL.SP.2002.193.01.24

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