Challenging claims in the study of migratory birds and climate change

Knudsen, Endre, Lindén, Andreas, Both, Christiaan, Jonzén, Niclas, Pulido, Francisco, Saino, Nicola, Sutherland, William J., Bach, Lars A., Coppack, Timothy, Ergon, Torbjørn, Gienapp, Phillip, Gill, Jennifer A., Gordo, Oscar, Hedenström, Anders, Lehikoinen, Esa, Marra, Peter P., Møller, Anders P., Nilsson, Anna L. K., Péron, Guillaume, Ranta, Esa, Rubolini, Diego, Sparks, Tim H., Spina, Fernando, Studds, Colin E., Saether, Stein A., Tryjanowski, Piotr and Stenseth, Nils Chr. (2011) Challenging claims in the study of migratory birds and climate change. Biological Reviews, 86 (4). pp. 928-946. ISSN 1469-185X

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Abstract

Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous control mechanisms. Here we assess and discuss key statements emerging from the rapidly developing study of changing spring phenology in migratory birds. These well-studied organisms have been instrumental for understanding climate-change effects, but research is developing rapidly and there is a need to attack the big issues rather than risking affirmative science. Although we agree poorly on the support for most claims, agreement regarding the knowledge basis enables consensus regarding broad patterns and likely causes. Empirical data needed for disentangling mechanisms are still scarce, and consequences at a population level and on community composition remain unclear. With increasing knowledge, the overall support (‘consensus view’) for a claim increased and between-researcher variability in support (‘expert opinions') decreased, indicating the importance of assessing and communicating the knowledge basis. A proper integration across biological disciplines seems essential for the field's transition from affirming patterns to understanding mechanisms and making robust predictions regarding future consequences of shifting phenologies.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Biological Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Organisms and the Environment
Depositing User:	Users 2731 not found.
Date Deposited:	16 May 2011 12:58
Last Modified:	28 Mar 2025 02:42
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/30597
DOI:	10.1111/j.1469-185X.2011.00179.x

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