Comparative analysis of the seismic hazard of Central China

Cole, Stephen W. and Burton, Paul W. (2008) Comparative analysis of the seismic hazard of Central China. In: 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 2008-10-12 - 2008-10-17.

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Seismic hazard assessment is globally recognised as a tool in identifying levels of earthquake ground shaking within an area. However, methodologies for seismic hazard calculation are wide ranging and produce variations in results and maps. As a case study seismic hazard and results from Gumbel’s method of extremes are determined for the area of greatest intraplate seismicity in China covering the provinces of Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan. This area is termed the North-South Seismic Zone. Devastating earthquakes in this zone include the 8.4 MS 1920 Haiyuan earthquake causing over 220,000 deaths and the 1996 Lijiang earthquake. Most recently the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake caused over 69,000 deaths with more than 18,000 people missing. These results and seismic hazard maps are compared with the publicly available maps of GSHAP and the national seismic hazard map of China at the level of 10% probability of exceedance in a 50 year period. The distributions of high and low hazard areas are similar and adjacent to the major thrust and strike-slip faults dominating in this area. However, results from the Gumbel method of extremes suggest that the hazard levels within certain areas are slightly different compared to the other two models. This is primarily because the Gumbel methodology is based on determining hazard from earthquakes that have already taken place whereas the other two models determine maximum hazard levels in areas which may exhibit no previous strong hazard. Additionally the Chinese national hazard map does not indicate levels of ground shaking intensity greater than IX in detail, whereas such zones are identified using the extreme value method. This work should be used to strengthen the seismic hazard analysis of this area of China.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups: Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Geosciences
Depositing User: Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited: 01 Mar 2011 11:30
Last Modified: 19 Dec 2022 10:30


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