Exploring an ensemble approach to estimating skill in multiproxy palaeoclimate reconstructions

van der Schrier, G., Osborn, T. J., Briffa, K. R. and Cook, E. R. (2007) Exploring an ensemble approach to estimating skill in multiproxy palaeoclimate reconstructions. The Holocene, 17. pp. 119-129. ISSN 1477-0911

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Abstract

This paper describes an approach that gives an estimate of the reconstructive skill of a proxy-based palaeoclimatological reconstruction. Uncertainties in proxy data are likely to be reflected in variations in reconstructive skill of the proxy-based climatic reconstructions. The method is based on making an ensemble of reconstructions, providing a probability distribution of each reconstruction estimate. The relative breadth of the distribution for a particular reconstructed value should give an indication of the reconstructive skill. The ensemble reconstruction approach draws on the ensemble prediction system as used for operational weather forecasting. The ensemble reconstruction approach is tested using a recent multiproxy reconstruction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. It is shown that the ensemble approach provides a representation of the degree of certainty associated with the reconstructed NAO-index values.

Item Type:	Article
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Depositing User:	Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited:	28 Feb 2011 16:04
Last Modified:	28 Mar 2025 03:54
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/25357
DOI:	10.1177/0959683607073294

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