A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies

Kilsby, C. G., Jones, P. D., Burton, A., Ford, A. C., Fowler, H. J., Harpham, C., James, P., Smith, A. and Wilby, R. L. (2007) A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies. Environmental Modelling and Software, 22 (12). pp. 1705-1719. ISSN 1873-6726

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Abstract

This paper describes the development of a weather generator for use in climate impact assessments of agricultural and water system management. The generator produces internally consistent series of meteorological variables including: rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind, sunshine, as well as derivation of potential evapotranspiration. The system produces series at a daily time resolution, using two stochastic models in series: first, for rainfall which produces an output series which is then used for a second model generating the other variables dependent on rainfall. The series are intended for single sites defined nationally across the UK at a 5 km resolution, but can be generated to be representative across small catchments (<1000 km2). Scenarios can be generated for the control period (1961–1990) based on observed data, as well as for the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP02) scenarios for three time slices (2020s, 2050s and 2080s). Future scenarios are generated by fitting the models to observations which have been perturbed by application of change factors derived from the UKCIP02 mean projected changes in that variable. These change factors are readily updated, as new scenarios become available, and with suitable calibration data the approach could be extended to any geographical region.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Marine and Atmospheric Sciences (former - to 2017) Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climate, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences (former - to 2017)
Depositing User:	Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited:	27 Feb 2011 09:33
Last Modified:	28 Mar 2025 03:49
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/24997
DOI:	10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.02.005

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