Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system

Kriegler, Elmar, Hall, Jim W., Held, Hermann, Dawson, Richard and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (2009) Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 106 (13). pp. 5041-5046. ISSN 1091-6490

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Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2–4 °C), and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 °C) relative to year 2000 levels.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Depositing User: Rachel Snow
Date Deposited: 23 Feb 2011 14:54
Last Modified: 24 Oct 2022 00:20
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0809117106

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