Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

Cheung, William W. L., Lam, Vicky W. Y., Sarmiento, Jorge L., Kearney, Kelly, Watson, Reg and Pauly, Daniel (2009) Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. Fish and Fisheries, 10 (3). pp. 235-251. ISSN 1467-2979

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Abstract

Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species' distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub-polar regions, the tropics and semi-enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60% of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies.

Item Type: Article
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Depositing User: Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited: 22 Feb 2011 15:48
Last Modified: 06 Nov 2019 10:31
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/24352
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x

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