Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century

Pereira, Henrique M., Leadley, Paul W., Proença, Vânia, Alkemade, Rob, Scharlemann, Jörn P. W., Fernandez-Manjarres, Juan F., Araújo, Miguel B., Balvanera, Patricia, Biggs, Reinette, Cheung, William W. L., Chini, Louise, Cooper, H. David, Gilman, Eric L., Guénette, Sylvie, Hurtt, George C., Huntington, Henry P., Mace, Georgina M., Oberdorff, Thierry, Revenga, Carmen, Rodrigues, Patrícia, Scholes, Robert J., Sumaila, Ussif Rashid and Walpole, Matt (2010) Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century. Science, 330 (6010). pp. 1496-1501. ISSN 1095-9203

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Abstract

Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

Item Type: Article
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Depositing User: Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited: 15 Feb 2011 15:12
Last Modified: 24 Jul 2019 14:13
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/20389
DOI: 10.1126/science.1196624

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