Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr

Livina, VN, Kwasniok, F and Lenton, TM (2010) Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr. Climate of the Past, 6 (1). pp. 77-82. ISSN 1814-9332

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Abstract

We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detects changes in the number of wells in artificial data. In ice-core proxy records of Greenland paleotemperature, a reduction in the number of climate states from two to one is detected sometime prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), 23-19 kyr BP. This result is also found in analysis of Greenland Ca data. The bifurcation can be interpreted as loss of stability of the warm interstadial state of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The proposed method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical time series exhibiting bifurcations.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Depositing User:	Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited:	15 Feb 2011 12:20
Last Modified:	23 Oct 2022 01:32
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/20357
DOI:	10.5194/cp-6-77-2010

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