Assessment of the uncertainties in temperature change in China during the last century

Li, QingXiang, Dong, WenJie, Li, Wei, Gao, XiaoRong, Jones, P., Kennedy, J. and Parker, D. (2010) Assessment of the uncertainties in temperature change in China during the last century. Chinese Science Bulletin, 55 (19). pp. 1974-1982. ISSN 1861-9541

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We have used the China Homogenized Historic Temperature dataset and some long-term station series of the neighbor countries from CRUTEM3, a 5°×5° gridded dataset of monthly mean temperature since 1900, to provide a 107-year record of surface temperature trends and variability. We derived a comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates to accompany the data: measurement and sampling errors, uncertainties in temperature bias estimates, and uncertainties arising from limited observational coverage on large-scale averages have all been estimated. We reanalysed the temperature changes during the period of record. The best estimates of trends for 1900-2006 with uncertainties at 95% confidence range are about 0.09±0.017°C/decade for the year as a whole, and 0.14±0.021°C/decade, 0.11±0.021°C/decade, 0.04±0.017°C/decade, and 0.07±0.017°C/decade for winter, spring, summer and autumn respectively. For 1954-2006, the trends for annual, winter, spring, summer and autumn are: 0.26±0.032°C/decade, 0.35±0.046°C/decade, 0.25±0.051°C/decade, 0.16±0. 037°C/decade and 0.22±0.055°C/decade. Winter saw the most significant warming trend in both 1900-2006 and 1954-2006, while during the most recent period (the satellite era, 1979-2006), all the seasons show similar warming trends: 0.45±0.13°C/decade, 0.51±0.11°C/decade, 0.52±0.16°C/decade, 0.37±0.10°C/decade and 0.50±0.16°C/decade for annual, winter, spring, summer and autumn. Trends arising from urbanization have been evaluated as less than 5% of the total warming trend for 1951-2001, so this bias was not removed.

Item Type: Article
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Depositing User: Rosie Cullington
Date Deposited: 15 Feb 2011 12:17
Last Modified: 21 Apr 2020 17:15
DOI: 10.1007/s11434-010-3209-1

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