Agent-Based Post-Hoc Correction of Agricultural Yield Forecasts

Beddows, Matthew, Durrant, Aiden ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8375-4523 and Leontidis, Georgios (2026) Agent-Based Post-Hoc Correction of Agricultural Yield Forecasts. Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence, 9. ISSN 2624-8212

Preview

PDF (frai-9-1911884) - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (897kB) | Preview

Abstract

Accurate crop yield forecasting in commercial soft fruit production is constrained by the data available in typical commercial farm records, which lack the sensor networks, satellite imagery, and high-resolution meteorological inputs that most state-of-the-art approaches assume. We propose a structured LLM agent framework that performs post-hoc correction of existing model predictions, encoding agricultural domain knowledge across tools for phase detection, bias learning, and range validation. Evaluated on a proprietary strawberry yield dataset and a public USDA corn harvest dataset, agent refinement of XGBoost reduced MAE by 20% and MASE by 56% on strawberry, with consistent improvements across Moirai2 (MAE 24%, MASE 22%) and Random Forest (MAE 28%, MASE 66%) baselines. Using Llama 3.1 8B as the agent produced the strongest corrections across all configurations; LLaVA 13B showed inconsistent gains, highlighting sensitivity to the choice of refinement model.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data Availability: The strawberry yield dataset was provided under a commercial agreement and cannot be made publicly available. The corn dataset is publicly available from the USDA NASS QuickStats database at https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/ and can be reproduced using the queries described in Section 3.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	llm agents,time series forecasting,agricultural yield prediction,xg boost,moirai2
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Computing Sciences
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Data Science and AI
Related URLs:	https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12375
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	16 Sep 2026 11:51
Last Modified:	05 Oct 2026 13:10
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/104563
DOI:	10.3389/frai.2026.1911884

Downloads

Actions (login required)

View Item