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Radchuk, V, Reed, T, Teplitsky, C, van de Pol, M, Charmantier, A, Hassall, C, Adamík, P, Adriaensen, F, MP, Ahola, Arcese, P, Miguel, Avilés J, Balbontin, J, Thorley, Jack 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8426-610X and Kramer-Schadt, S
(2019)
Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient.
Nature Communications.
ISSN 2041-1723
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Abstract
Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Data availability: The PRC dataset, containing metadata on each study as well as coefficients estimated for each step of the framework (Fig. 1) per each study, is available as Supplementary Data 4. We also make available the raw data for a subset of studies for which we received the consent of data owners (4819 out of 4835 studies). These data are available as part of the R package ‘adRes’ (www.github.com/radchukv/adRes), which implements the complete workflow of this study and provides functions to be used to conduct similar analyses on new data in the future. The source data underlying Figs. 1b, c, 1e, f, 2, 3, 4 and 5a–c are provided as a Source Data file. |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action |
| Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Science > School of Biological Sciences |
| Related URLs: | |
| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 10 Sep 2026 15:26 |
| Last Modified: | 13 Sep 2026 23:06 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/104484 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4 |
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