Comparing factor models under regime switching

Ahmed, Shamim, Robotti, Cesare, Tsvetanov, Daniel and Ye, Xiaoxia (2026) Comparing factor models under regime switching. Management Science. ISSN 0025-1909 (In Press)

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Abstract

We compare factor pricing models using the test-asset irrelevance result of Barillas and Shanken (2017) but under regime switching. We show that the unconditional squared Sharpe ratio measure is no longer appropriate for model comparison when returns are subject to regime shifts. However, conditional on a given regime, model comparison can be performed using the conditional squared Sharpe ratio metric. We find that the Fama and French (2018) six-factor model that employs a cash-based profitability factor, the Barillas and Shanken (2018) six-factor model, and the Stambaugh and Yuan (2017) four-factor model are jointly the best-performing models under the bull regime. But no model performs significantly better than others under the bear regime. Importantly, these findings are robust to regime uncertainty. We also find that unconditional model rankings closely mirror those in bull markets, overstating the superiority of the models identified as best‑performing in expansions by ignoring the performance convergence across models that emerges in downturns. This underscores the importance of evaluating factor models conditional on market regimes.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	regime switching,asset pricing models,model comparison,state uncertainty,out-of-sample analysis,economics, econometrics and finance(all),4* ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2000
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Norwich Business School
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Finance Group
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	24 Aug 2026 14:33
Last Modified:	24 Aug 2026 14:33
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/104309
DOI:	issn:0025-1909

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