Robust adaptation decisions amid climate change uncertainties

Dessai, Suraje (2005) Robust adaptation decisions amid climate change uncertainties. Doctoral thesis, University of East Anglia.

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Abstract

Projections of future climate change are plagued with uncertainties, which cause difficulties for planners taking decisions on adaptation measures. This thesis presents an interdisciplinary framework that allows the identification of adaptation strategies that are robust (i.e. insensitive) to climate change uncertainties. A range of tools and methods are used to explicitly quantify uncertainties in climate change projections. These include scenario analysis, Monte Carlo simulations and the pattern-scaling technique applied to simple and complex climate models.

The framework is applied to a case study of water resources management in the East ofEngland, more specifically to the Anglian Water Services' 25 year Water Resource Plan (WRP). The institutional setting where adaptation decisions occur is explained. Adaptation options are elicited from decision-makers and linked to changes in the climate. Three sets of analyses are performed on the framework: (I) sensitivity analysis determines which are the most influential variables of the framework from an adaptation perspective; (2) uncertainty analysis assesses whether currently planned adaptation strategies are robust against climate change uncertainties, assuming risks can be quantified; and (3) robustness analysis assesses adaptation strategies against climate change and other uncertainties, assuming the uncertainties cannot be quantified using probabilities.

Water resources are found to be sensitive to uncertainties in regional climate response from General Circulation Models and dynamical downscaling, in climate sensitivity and in climate impacts. Aerosol forcing and greenhouse gas emissions uncertainties are also important, whereas uncertainties from sampling strategies, ocean mixing and the carbon cycle are not. The uncertainty analysis estimates the conditional probability of additional water required for two Water Resource Zones (WRZs) in the Anglian region. This is performed for the 2030s under the SRES A2 scenario and using the most skilled models. At the 95% confidence level the bounds of additional water required ranged from -6.67 to 26.34 Megalitres/day (Ml/d) for the East Suffolk & Essex (ES&E) WRZ and from -24.30 to 111.81 Ml/d for the Rutbamford WRZ. This represents an uncertainty range of 33.01 Ml/d (33% of demand) for the ES&E WRZ and 136.11 Ml/d (39% of demand) for the Ruthamford WRZ.

Item Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science
Depositing User:	Chris White
Date Deposited:	18 Aug 2026 11:17
Last Modified:	18 Aug 2026 11:17
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/104211
DOI:

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