Arming the Archipelago: Explaining A2/AD Divergence in the South China Sea

Park, Soul ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6692-9080, Kim, Inwook and Paik, Seung Joon (2026) Arming the Archipelago: Explaining A2/AD Divergence in the South China Sea. The Pacific Review. ISSN 0951-2748 (In Press)

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Abstract

How do secondary powers develop anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities when facing asymmetric threats? This article explains variation in Southeast Asian maritime defense strategies through a novel framework that distinguishes between anti-access (A2) and area denial (AD) based on operational range, strategic purpose, and integration requirements. We argue that A2/AD development patterns result from the interaction of two variables: the level of external threat states perceive regarding maritime territorial challenges, and the quality of civil-military relations that affects whether external pressures produce coherent or incoherent procurement. Through comparative case studies of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malayasia and Indonesia, we identify four distinct pathways: balanced acceleration, constrained coherence, selective prioritization, and undisciplined accumulation. This framework advances understanding of secondary-state security behavior by moving beyond diplomatic alignment theories to illuminate the domestic institutional factor influencing defense procurement effectiveness, with significant implications for regional deterrence stability in contested maritime regions.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ad,southeast asia,south china sea,procurement,civil-military relations,4* ,/dk/atira/pure/researchoutput/REFrank/4_
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Arts and Humanities > School of Politics, Philosophy and Area Studies
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	23 Jul 2026 09:27
Last Modified:	23 Jul 2026 09:27
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/103946
DOI:	issn:0951-2748

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