Which Oil Shocks are Recessionary, and which are Inflationary?

Vlastakis, Nikolaos ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6411-7708, Triantafyllou, Athanasios and Kellard, Neil (2026) Which Oil Shocks are Recessionary, and which are Inflationary? The European Journal of Finance. ISSN 1351-847X

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Abstract

The role of oil price shocks in economic activity and inflation is a controversial but key input to economic policy. To examine these relations, we employ a refined measure of oil shocks based on decomposing realized volatility and estimated using intraday oil futures data. In new results, we find that asymmetric shocks driven by oil price increases (decreases) are actually associated with rising (falling) economic activity, particularly in the US case; while a symmetric volatility channel confirms that increasing oil price volatility negatively affects economic activity, particularly for the EU. Finally, we show that the inflationary effect of rising oil prices holds not only for the US economy, but for the rest of the world.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data availability statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, N.V., upon reasonable request.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	oil shocks,jumps,realized semivariance,economic activity,inflation,3* ,/dk/atira/pure/researchoutput/REFrank/3_
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Norwich Business School
UEA Research Groups:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Groups > Finance Group
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	07 Jul 2026 16:48
Last Modified:	12 Jul 2026 05:28
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/103784
DOI:	10.1080/1351847X.2026.2695731

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