The impact of policy intervention on international wine demand

Liu, Allen, Liu, Anyu, Jiao, Xiaoying and Liu, Zhen (2024) The impact of policy intervention on international wine demand. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 36 (8). pp. 2728-2751. ISSN 0959-6119

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Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of the study is to investigate the impact of implementing anti-dumping duties on imported Australian wine to China in the short- and long-run, respectively. Design/methodology/approach: First, the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method is used in this study to evaluate the short-run causal effect of implementing anti-dumping duties on imported Australian wine to China. Second, a Bayesian ensemble method is used to predict 2023–2025 wine exports from Australia to China. The disparity between the forecasts and counterfactual prediction which assumes no anti-dumping duties represents the accumulated impact of the anti-dumping duties in the long run. Findings: The anti-dumping duties resulted in a significant decline in red and rose, white and sparkling wine exports to China by 92.59%, 99.06% and 90.06%, respectively, in 2021. In the long run, wine exports to China are projected to continue this downward trend, with an average annual growth rate of −21.92%, −38.90% and −9.54% for the three types of wine, respectively. In contrast, the counterfactual prediction indicates an increase of 3.20%, 20.37% and 4.55% for the respective categories. Consequently, the policy intervention is expected to result in a decrease of 96.11%, 93.15% and 84.11% in red and rose, white and sparkling wine exports to China from 2021 to 2025. Originality/value: The originality of this study lies in the creation of an economic paradigm for assessing policy impacts within the realm of wine economics. Methodologically, it also represents the pioneering application of the DID and Bayesian ensemble forecasting methods within the field of wine economics.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	anti-dumping duties,australian wine,bayesian ensemble forecast,china,did,tourism, leisure and hospitality management ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1400/1409
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Norwich Business School
Related URLs:	https://www.scopus.com/pages/publication...
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	01 Jun 2026 09:23
Last Modified:	01 Jun 2026 19:26
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/103208
DOI:	10.1108/ijchm-08-2023-1275

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