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ToolsJung, Thomas, Wilson, Jeff, Bauer, Peter, Bazile, Eric, Bromwich, David, Casati, Barbara, Day, Jonathan, De Coning, Estelle, Eayrs, Clare, Godoy, Oystein, Goessling, Helge, Grumbine, Robert, Heinrich, Victoria J., Inoue, Jun, Khalsa, Siri Jodha S., Kristiansen, Jorn, Lamers, Machiel, Liggett, Daniela, Olsen, Steffen M., Perovich, Donald, Renfrew, Ian A., Sandu, Irina, Shupe, Matthew D., Smith, Gregory, Smolyanitsky, Vasily, Svensson, Gunilla, Sun, Qizhen, Uttal, Taneil, Werner, Kirstin and Yang, Qinghua (2025) The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP): Achievements, impacts and lessons learnt. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 106 (12). pp. 2519-2543. ISSN 0003-0007
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Abstract
The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), an international research initiative organized by the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) World Weather Research Program from 2013 to 2022, aimed to markedly enhance environmental prediction capabilities in the polar regions and beyond, particularly in the context of a rapidly changing climate. YOPP achieved this through a concerted effort in observation, modeling, verification, user engagement, and educational activities. This article offers a comprehensive overview of YOPP’s key outcomes and impacts, using a dual approach that merges qualitative success stories with quantitative metrics. Scientifically, the focus is on the role of polar observations in improving prediction accuracy, enhanced understanding of processes to support model development, advancements in forecast verification, particularly in sea ice prediction, an improved understanding of the interconnections between polar and midlatitude regions, and effective user engagement. This paper also discusses how these scientific discoveries have been converted into practical applications, emphasizing the route from science to services. Additionally, it summarizes the education, communication, outreach, and coordination efforts employed to maximize YOPP’s impact. Finally, the article provides a series of recommendations for future research, informed by the insights gained from YOPP’s experiences and recent radical developments in technology. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) was a landmark initiative aimed at enhancing our ability to predict environmental changes in the polar regions, areas that are increasingly affected by climate change. By integrating global efforts in observation, modeling, and data analysis, YOPP has significantly contributed to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts in these critical zones, and beyond. These advancements matter because they provide crucial insights into polar processes along with their remote impacts, enhance global prediction models, and inform stakeholders about predictive capabilities. The project’s focus on user engagement and education ensures that these scientific achievements translate into practical benefits. The collaborative spirit of YOPP exemplifies how international scientific cooperation can address some of the most pressing environmental challenges of our time.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Additional Information: | Deployment of the oceanic, ice-strengthened, barometric Lagrangian buoys in the Eurasian Arctic during the YOPP special observing periods was supported under a letter of agreement between AARI and WMO. We thank the countries, institutions, companies, and individuals who mobilized resources, provided logistics, and contributed staff to support field campaigns, data analysis, and publication. We thank everyone who participated in and contributed to the development, implementation, and write up of the WMO WWRP Polar Prediction Project and the Year of Polar Prediction, especially all members of the PPP steering group as well as the WMO consultants, especially Neil Gordon, and we look forward to seeing further results published in the coming years. Data availability statement. The observational and model data used in the YOPPsiteMIP activities are available through the Year of Polar Prediction Data Portal (https://yopp.met.no/) developed and maintained by the Meteorological Institute of Norway. |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | skill, forecasting,forecasting,seasonal forecasting,atmospheric science,sdg 13 - climate action ,/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1902 |
| Faculty \ School: | Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA |
| UEA Research Groups: | Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences |
| Related URLs: | |
| Depositing User: | LivePure Connector |
| Date Deposited: | 18 May 2026 11:23 |
| Last Modified: | 18 May 2026 11:23 |
| URI: | https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/103067 |
| DOI: | 10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0226.1 |
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