How Did changing climate in the tropical South Pacific contribute to the eastward migration and settlement of Polynesia?

Sear, David, Peaple, Mark, Langdon, Peter, Skinner, Dan, Joshi, Manoj, Matthews, Adrian, Hipkiss, Charlotte, Osborn, Timothy, Inglis, Gordon and Sheffield, Justin (2026) How Did changing climate in the tropical South Pacific contribute to the eastward migration and settlement of Polynesia? Journal of Pacific Archaeology, 16 (2). ISSN 1179-4712

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Abstract

The migration of humans into the eastern Pacific was relatively rapid and focused around 900-1250 CE. Although the causes for this migration are varied, we put forward evidence to suggest that a change in the mean state of the tropical South Pacific from La Niña like to El Niño like conditions accompanied by an increase in climate “shocks” around the period of migration, could have created conditions to promote migration east into the Pacific. We use a range of sediment archives and hydroclimate proxies located in sites within the region of migration, to reconstruct climate conditions in the ‘sending’ islands, and ‘receiving’ archipelagos. Climate in the period immediately prior to the eastward migration was characterised by a drier southwest Pacific. During the period following settlement of the central region of eastern Polynesia, the mean climate state in receiving islands became wetter, with fewer climate “shocks”. Results from socio-hydrological models highlight the sensitivity of growing populations to droughts within a drying climate. Using these lines of evidence, we suggest that as populations grew, particularly in drought-sensitive islands, people with some knowledge of eastern “Gateway islands”, chose to move east, fortuitously at a time when wetter conditions supported their long-term settlement.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Data Availability Statement: Proxy data generated as part of this study are available via the Open Science Frameworkhttps://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/VMK7X(2025), and via Maloney et al., (2019) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2018.10.028and Maloney et al., (2022) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107421
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate,polynesia,pacific
Faculty \ School:	Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Research Groups/Centres > Theme - ClimateUEA
UEA Research Groups:	University of East Anglia Schools > Faculty of Science > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Centres > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Faculty of Science > Research Groups > Climatic Research Unit Faculty of Social Sciences > Research Centres > Water Security Research Centre
Depositing User:	LivePure Connector
Date Deposited:	11 May 2026 09:49
Last Modified:	14 May 2026 15:16
URI:	https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/102930
DOI:	10.70460/jpa.v16i2.399

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