Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors

Groeneveld, Rolf A, Bosello, Francesco, Butenschön, Momme, Elliott, Mike, Peck, Myron A and Pinnegar, John K (2018) Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 201. pp. 164-171. ISSN 0272-7714

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Abstract

Addressing the multitude of challenges in marine policy requires an integrated approach that considers the multitude of drivers, pressures, and interests, from several disciplinary angles. Scenarios are needed to harmonise the analyses of different components of the marine system, and to deal with the uncertainty and complexity of the societal and biogeophysical dynamics in the system. This study considers a set of socio-economic scenarios to (1) explore possible futures in relation to marine invasive species, outbreak forming species, and gradual changes in species distribution and productivity; and (2) harmonise the projection modelling performed within associated studies. The exercise demonstrates that developing interdisciplinary scenarios as developed in this study is particularly complicated due to (1) the wide variety in endogeneity or exogeneity of variables in the different analyses involved; (2) the dual role of policy decisions as variables in a scenario or decisions to be evaluated and compared to other decisions; and (3) the substantial difference in time scale between societal and physical drivers.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: climatic changes,socioeconomic aspects,international policy,ecosystem management,scenarios
Faculty \ School: Faculty of Science > School of Environmental Sciences
Depositing User: Pure Connector
Date Deposited: 12 May 2016 17:00
Last Modified: 25 Jul 2018 12:10
URI: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/58715
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecss.2015.10.020

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